Abstract
Renewable energy comprises solar, wind, tidal, biomass and geothermal energies. Use of renewable energy resources as a substitute for fossil fuels inevitably reduce environmental footprint. Therefore, integration of renewable energy to the power grid, smart grid planning and grid-storage preparations are some of the major concerns in all developing countries. However, unpredictability in renewable energy resources makes the situation challenging. In light of this, the present study aims to develop a solar energy forecasting model to estimate future energy supply for a smooth integration of solar energy to the current electric grids. A suite of eight probability models, namely exponential, gamma, normal, lognormal, logistic, log-logistic, Rayleigh and Weibull distributions are used. While the model parameters are estimated from the maximum likelihood estimation method, the performance of the candidate distributions is tested using three goodness of fit tests: Akaike information criterion, Chi-square criterion, and K-S minimum distance criterion. Based on the sample data obtained from the Charanka Solar Park, Gujarat, it is observed that the Weibull model provides the best representation to the observed solar radiations. The study concludes with the analysis of forecasted solar energy and its possible role in replacing thermal energy resources.
Highlights
World energy resources can be broadly classified into three types: fossil fuels, renewable resources, and nuclear resources
The unpredictability of renewable energy resources, such as wind speed and solar radiation makes integration difficult, as the current electric grids cannot operate unless there is a mutual balance between supply and demand (Zhang et al 2015; Su et al 2012; Jacobson and Delucchi 2011; Delucchi and Jacobson 2011; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) homepage 2019)
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI), on the contrary, is the amount of radiation received per unit area by a surface that does not arrive on a direct path from the sun, but has been scattered by molecules and particles in the atmosphere and comes from all directions
Summary
World energy resources can be broadly classified into three types: fossil fuels, renewable resources, and nuclear resources. The unpredictability of renewable energy resources, such as wind speed and solar radiation makes integration difficult, as the current electric grids cannot operate unless there is a mutual balance between supply and demand (Zhang et al 2015; Su et al 2012; Jacobson and Delucchi 2011; Delucchi and Jacobson 2011; NREL homepage 2019). As renewable energy plants are usually located far away from the consumption location, transportation of power may cause unwanted transmission losses (Zhang et al 2015; Su et al 2012; Jacobson and Delucchi 2011; Delucchi and Jacobson 2011; NREL homepage 2019). Two main categories of studies have evolved, one focusing on the smart grid or grid energy storage technology and another aiming at forecasting of renewable energy (Rather 2018; Zhang et al 2015; Su et al 2012; Jacobson and Delucchi 2011; Delucchi and Jacobson 2011; NREL homepage 2019). The aim is to select the best-fit probability distribution(s) among exponential, gamma, normal, lognormal, logistic, log-logistic, Rayleigh and Weibull models to forecast solar radiations
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
