Statistical Modeling for Wheat (Triticum &lt;i&gt;Aestivum&lt;/i&gt;) Crop Production

Rajarathinam Arunachalam,Vinoth Balakrishnan

doi:10.5923/j.statistics.20120204.03

Statistical Modeling for Wheat (Triticum <i>Aestivum</i>) Crop Production

Rajarathinam Arunachalam, Vinoth Balakrishnan

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5923/j.statistics.20120204.03

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Abstract

The present investigation was carried out to study the trends in area, production and productivity of wheat crop grown during the period 1950-1951 to 2009-2010 in India. Different non-linear models were employed to study the trends in area, production and productivity. When none of the non-linear models were found suitable to fit the trends nonparametric regression model was employed. None of the non-linear model was found suitable to fit the trends in area data. The Sinusoidal model was found suitable to fit the trends in production as well as productivity of wheat crop grown in India. The results indicated that area, production and productivity of wheat crop grown in India, had been shown in the increasing trend. The area of cultivation had played a major role in increasing the trend in production.

Highlights

Wheat is a cereal grain wh ich originated in fro m the Levant region o f the North east but is cu ltivated globally
To test the presence or absence of auto-correlation in the data set Durbin-Watson test procedure[16] was utilized In case of more than one model being the good fit for the data, the best model was selected based on lower values of Root Mean Square Error (RM SE) and Mean Absolute Error (MA E) values
The data presented in Table 2. for the area under the wheat crop revealed that a mong the non-linear models fitted to the area under the wheat crop, the maximu m adjusted R2 of 97

Summary

Introduction

Wheat is a cereal grain wh ich originated in fro m the Levant region o f the North east but is cu ltivated globally. In 2007 world production of wheat was 607 Million Tons, making it the third most produced cereal crop after maize and rice. Wheat is adapted to a wide variety of climatic conditions. It is grown where annual temperatures of 4.9 to 27.8°C p revail [3]. China produces 108,712 TMT of wheat annually, making it the worlds largest producer of wheat but it is not enough to feed its 1.2 Billion population it is forced to import 4,247 TMT of wheat and it exports a very little amount to the neighbouring Asian countries about 657 TMT annually. India is second largest producer of wheat in the world, averaging an annual production of 65,856 TMT. India imports 990 TMT of wheat, and, for various reasons, exports an average of 767 TMT of wheat annually[2]

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