Abstract
Growth rates in production, area and yield of agricultural crops are widely estimated for examining growth performance of the crop sector and evaluating government policies. But estimation of linear trends which provide valuable information for policy analysis received little importance. This paper developed a model for estimating linear trends in production, area and yields of agricultural crops and used the same to derive estimates of linear trends in the cereal sector. The analysis shows that linear trends in cereal production Increased in the 80's only marginaliy which is unsatisfactory in view of population growth and public investment. The poor trend resulted mainly from decreased trends in production and yield of wheat and yield of boro paddy.
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