Statistical model applied in the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relationships between environmental variables and cyanotoxin concentrations in tropical reservoirs.

Abstract

This article presents the use of generalized additive model for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) in the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relationships between environmental parameters and cyanotoxins in the tropical reservoirs of Colombia. The physicochemical parameters were evaluated on each of the cyanotoxins detected with levels high by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. The models showed a relation between cyanotoxins and the nutrients as soluble total Kjeldahl nitrogen (NTK), soluble phosphorus (soluble P), total phosphorus (total P), and nitrates (NO3-), among other nutrients that are necessary for the growth of organisms that produce toxins. This model confirms that the NTK and soluble P variables favor an increase in the concentration of MC-LR and MC-YR cyanotoxins in the Abreo Malpaso reservoir. The variables NO3- and dissolved O2 contribute to a higher concentration of MC-LR, MC-YR, and MC-ADRR cyanotoxins in the Peñol reservoir. Finally, the variable total P favors the increase in the concentration of MC-LR cyanotoxin and the variable dissolved O2 favors the increase in the concentration of cyanotoxin [D-Asp3, (E)-Dhb7] -MC-RR in the Playas reservoir.