Abstract
The paper presents a statistical assessment of the probabilistic nature of summer in males of Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff. according to the data of pheromone monitoring in the vineyards of the North-Eastern Black Sea region. The observed and calculated basic statistical indicators of the frequency binomial distribution of summer (beginning, length of summer, the central trend of summer and the expected period of the central trend) of three economically significant generations are considered. With significant restrictions, the period of mass summer of the pest is indicated, calculated as the standard deviation of summer of all individuals in the period. Indicators such as kurtosis, asymmetry and others have been calculated and analyzed, which make it possible to understand better the nature of the summer of a harmful object. When analyzing the dynamics of the fly of the Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff by various methods, it is concluded that the actually observed fly of the pest are more uniform in comparison with theoretical abstraction. Wherein, the first fly is more extended and unstable than the subsequent periods of mating — this character of fly is influenced by abiotic environmental conditions. Based on long-term monitoring data of seasonal cycles of development, which include four generations, the period of full development of one generation of the Lobesia botrana Den. et Schiff in field conditions was established. Its main probabilistic indicators and differences between generations are provided. These data can help in understanding the age dynamics of the grape leafroller population and its probabilistic nature in order to improve the prognosis of the pest development and the timing of protective measures.
Highlights
IntroductionFrom 2009 to 2014, it was found in various regions of California in North America [5], but thanks to the work of the local quarantine service, the invader was successfully destroyed [6]
The aim of the study was to describe the fly of the Lobesia botrana Den
Et Schiff. using pheromone traps made it possible to establish the average length of the first summer of the pest in the conditions of the region, which was 42 days
Summary
From 2009 to 2014, it was found in various regions of California in North America [5], but thanks to the work of the local quarantine service, the invader was successfully destroyed [6]. This dominant grape phytophage has been a typical harmful object for more than half a century, since the end of the 60s of the last century, and has economic importance in the vineyards of the North-Eastern Black Sea region. With a high number of pests, you can lose up to 75-80 % of the crop
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