Abstract
AbstractIn this study, we use MM5 weather-forecast model output and observed surface weather data from 11 stations in the western Himalaya to develop a statistical downscaling model (SDM) to better predict precipitation, 10 m wind speed and 2 m temperature. The analysis covers three consecutive winters: 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/07. The performance of the SDM was assessed using an independent dataset from the 2007/08 winter season. This assessment shows that the SDM technique substantially improves the forecast over specific station locations, which is important for avalanche-threat assessment.
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