Abstract
AbstractThis study uses rainfall forecasts from six advanced experimental NMME (North-American Multi-model Ensemble) models from 1996 to 2010. The seasonal rainfall forecasts from the statistical downscaling and BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator) schemes are calibrated and verified over districts of West Bengal. The forecast performances and predicted seasonal rainfall distribution from the statistical downscaling and BLUE methods are the main objectives of this work. The seasonal rainfall prediction skills are compared among models before and after downscaling methods. The forecasts of downscaled global models are more accurate compared to real observations. The improvements of seasonal rainfall forecasts skills are discussed. The CFSv2 model is more capable of forecasting at the district level than others. More improvement is expected with dense real observation.KeywordsStatistical Downscaling (SD)Seasonal RainfallSkill
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