Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

Abstract

Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global ( H) and diffuse ( H d) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours ( N), the fraction of the sky’s cloud cover ( Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air ( e) and the ambient temperature ( T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K ̄ d and N ̄ / N ̄ d , N ̄ e/8 or K ̄ t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables.