Statistical Approaches Used in Studies Evaluating the Reliability of Autonomous Vehicles Based on Disengagements and Reaction Times

Abstract

The rapid development of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology highlights the critical importance of enhancing the reliability of these vehicles. Due to the need to test the reliability of AVs, since 2014, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has permitted autonomous vehicle manufacturers to establish an AV Testing program, enabling them to test automated systems on the transportation network. With this, studies on the reliability of AVs have increased rapidly. The most emphasized issues regarding the reliability of AVs have been disengagements, accidents, and reaction times. In this study, disengagements and reaction times are categorized and explained in detail according to the data type, company, period, and statistical method. The data used in the studies cover the years 2014-2020. When examining studies on the reliability of AVs, until 2018, inferences were generally made using real data and descriptive statistics, particularly with methods such as correlation analysis and calculation of disengagements per mile, which investigates the relationship between distance traveled and disengagements. However, since 2018, machine learning has gained importance in evaluating AV reliability. It has been observed that regression, classification, and decision trees were frequently used during this period. Techniques such as deep transfer learning, text mining, and natural language processing also stand out. Furthermore, Software Reliability Growth Models are used to measure software reliability, playing an essential role in evaluating, analyzing, and improving the performance and reliability of AVs. This study aims to reveal the development and diversity of the statistical methods used to determine AV reliability. Additionally, this study aims to guide and provide insights to researchers in the field about the statistical approaches they can utilize.