Statistical and conceptual models of ‘turning points’ in developmental processes

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INTRODUCTION During recent years there has been a growing interest in what have been termed transitions or ‘turning points’ in a person's development or life course (see, e.g., Elder, Caspi & Burton, 1988; Hareven, 1978; Maughan & Champion, in press; Rutter, 1989). The focus is on two main types of everyday events or happenings that bring about a potential for long-term psychological change. First, there are those in which the potential stems from an opening up or closing down of opportunities. Going to university and dropping out of school respectively provide obvious examples. Secondly, there are those that involve a radical lasting change in life circumstances. Such changes may come about as a result of key additions or subtractions from a person's nexus of intimate family relationships (as with marriage or divorce), or from alterations in life pattern (as from the transition to parenthood or being made redundant in midlife), or from a major social change stemming from a geographical move (as with immigration to a different country or a move from a metropolis to a rural village). The general concept is easy to understand and the operational definition of potential turning points is also straightforward, with the proviso that it is necessary to consider whether the events actually changed opportunities or life circumstances in the individual case. Thus, marriage may, but need not, involve a major change in social network, pattern of relationships or way of life.