Statistical analysis on the incidence and predictors of death among second-line ART patients in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones, Ethiopia, 2021

Abstract

Acquired immune deficiency virus, caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, is a significant global health concern. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly Ethiopia faces a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. In low-income settings like Ethiopia, early mortality rates are elevated due to severe opportunistic infections and advanced disease at Anti-retroviral treatment initiation. Despite available treatments, delayed treatment initiation among Human Immunodeficiency Virus -infected individuals in Africa, including Ethiopia, leads to disease progression and increased mortality risk. This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the death of HIV patients under treatment at second line regimen in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A retrospective cohort study with 474 patients was conducted in selected hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A parametric Weibull regression model was employed, and the adjusted hazard ratio served as the measure of association. Variables significantly affected the outcome of the study was determined at a p-value < 0.05, along with a 95% confidence interval for the variables. The patients were within the average age of 38.6(standard deviation ± 12.5) years and majority (45.57%) had no formal education. The overall death incidence rate among second-line anti-retroviral treatment patients was 1.98 per 100-person years [95% CI 1.4—2.9%]. Poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment, male gender, and being underweight significantly increased the hazard of death. Conversely, increased anti-retroviral treatment duration had a significant and negative impact, reducing the hazard of death among patients. The study reveals a high incidence of death among second line anti-retroviral treatment users. Independent predictors include poor adherence, male gender, and underweight status, all significantly increasing the risk of death. On the positive side, the hazard of death decreases with longer anti-retroviral treatment duration. A critical concern and counseling should be given for better ART adherence, to change their nutritional status and for males.