Statistical analysis of the structure of public opinion in Russia in 2012–2018

Abstract

In this article, public opinion of the population of Russia is considered as a system of interrelated assessments and opinions on various aspects of social life, formed in the conditions of economic reality. The quantitative characteristics of the opinions of Russian society on problems affecting the interests of the country's population are analyzed using special procedures of modern econometrics. The main methodological feature of the approach is the transition from a informative interpretation of pair correlations to analysis of the minimum number of multiple dependencies using the means of causal analysis and the detection of direct relationships. The impact of public opinion on some forms of social behavior is assessed. Integral indices of the population’s the credibility of the government and life satisfaction are constructed, their changes are shown during 2012–2018. To construct the forecast, models of changes in the population’s attitude to different aspects of its life are considered. The official statistics and data of the all-Russian center for public opinion research. The procedures of analysis and conditional forecasting of public opinion presented in the article can be used in the development of management strategies in terms of the formation of optimal interaction between the government and society.