Netizen Opinion and China's Foreign Policy: Interpreting Narratives about North Korea on Chinese Social Media

Abstract

Netizen Opinion and China's Foreign Policy:Interpreting Narratives about North Korea on Chinese Social Media Andrew Scobell (bio), Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga (bio), Astrid Cevallos (bio), Arthur Chan (bio), and Zev Winkelman (bio) keywords China, North Korea, foreign policy, internet, public opinion, social media [End Page 97] executive summary This article analyzes Chinese netizen opinion of North Korea by examining thousands of Chinese-language social media posts. main argument The impact of netizen opinion on one of China's most challenging contemporary foreign policy issues is difficult to assess. Previous research on Chinese attitudes toward North Korea has focused on elite policy debates and paid little attention to popular views. To address this imbalance, this article collects a novel dataset of thousands of Chinese-language social media posts on the leading microblog, Sina Weibo (Xinlang Weibo), in 2015. Analysis of this dataset reveals four multilayered popular Chinese narratives on North Korea: one ridiculing the country and its youthful leader Kim Jong-un, a second critiquing China via unflattering comparisons and parallels with North Korea, a third assessing China and the legacy of the Korean War, and a fourth addressing the ongoing foreign policy security challenge that North Korea poses to China. These popular narratives are in direct conflict with China's official narrative of long-standing, battle-tested comradely relations between the two states. This official narrative also pointedly omits any detailed characterization of North Korea and its leaders and only refers to denuclearization in the context of the entire peninsula. Moreover, the popular narratives mirror elite discourse while providing greater nuance and context for understanding Beijing's tormented relationship with Pyongyang. These findings underscore the complexities and underlying sensitivities of China's disposition vis-à-vis North Korea. policy implications • Netizen narratives on North Korea reveal a lively popular discourse that tends to mirror elite discourse and conflicts with China's official narrative. • While the specific impact of online public opinion on Chinese foreign policy is difficult to assess, China's state monitoring and censorship decisions suggest that it is of irrefutable interest and relevance to policymakers. • Cognizant that many netizens hold strong negative views of North Korea, China may be playing a two-level game with such sentiment, seeking to mollify Chinese public frustration with both countries' leaders, while at the same time signaling to Pyongyang that Beijing's policy is under substantial pressure from Chinese netizens. [End Page 98] This article analyzes the largest sample of online public opinion to date on one of the most complicated contemporary foreign policy challenges confronting the People's Republic of China (PRC): the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea. Beijing's behavior toward its neighbor has been remarkably restrained in the face of repeated provocations—including nuclear tests and missile launches—which come at a time when Beijing has acted assertively on other foreign policy issues.1 Chinese elite attitudes toward the DPRK have been widely reported, including debates among academic and military elites about whether China should "abandon" North Korea.2 In the past, discussion of popular views has been constrained by the limited availability of information, but the widespread use of social media in China now provides data for in-depth analysis of online public opinion. Such analysis can shed light on the role that Chinese internet users, or "netizens," may play in shaping the leadership's foreign policy options toward North Korea. The place of public opinion in China's foreign policy is a common yet controversial research topic.3 Some studies assert that public opinion is a key independent variable in shaping the policies of the PRC toward Japan and the United States.4 Other studies conclude that Chinese leaders manipulate public opinion to obtain leverage against other countries.5 Even those who assert the relevance of public opinion for the PRC's North Korea policy disagree about its precise impact: Thomas Christensen argues that public opinion constrains policy options for Chinese leaders, while [End Page 99] Simon Shen contends that it expands those options.6 To date, there has been no thorough analysis of the impact of public opinion on China's policy toward North Korea. According to one expert, however, "there...