Abstract
Based on the 45-year natural runoff time series from 1956 to 2000 of Golmud hydrological station, the control station of Golmud River basin, the inter-annual variation characteristics involving tendency, periodicity and abrupt change and intra-annual distribution of runoff were researched by using the linear tendency estimate method, cumulative departure method, Mann-Kendall method, Morlet wavelet analysis method, Yamamoto method and Pettitt method, combined with the analysis of annual average distribution process and complete adjustment coefficient. The results indicate that the overall inter-annual fluctuations of the runoff in the Golmud Basin are relatively small, and the overall annual runoff shows a significant increasing trend. After the abrupt change occurred in 1966, the runoff increased significantly. The variation of runoff has 3-year, 6-year and 18-year periods, and the 6-year period is especially obvious. Furthermore, there is a change rule of wet and dry with an 8-year alternation in the 18 years periodic variation. The intra-annual distribution of runoff is uneven, showing a “single peak” distribution, and the degree of unevenness tends to more concentrated.
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