Statistical analysis of long-term trends in UK effective rainfall: implications for deep-seated landsliding

Abstract

Rainfall and its impact on the water content of a slope are known to be important controls on landslide activity in the UK. This paper presents an analysis of long-term monthly rainfall and temperature records from selected stations throughout the UK, including the application of a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate the significance of any trends in these time series. The results indicate that there is significant spatial variation in the long-term trends. A positive trend of increasing effective rainfall (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) is present at some (but not all) Scottish stations (Eskdalemuir, Lerwick, Paisley, Stornoway and Tiree), but is not present across the rest of the UK.