An analysis of rainfall variability and drought over Barmer District of Rajasthan, Northwest India

Abstract

Abstract Climate variability, mainly the annual air temperature and precipitation, have received great attention worldwide. The magnitude of this climate variability changes with variation in location. Rajasthan comes under the arid and semi-arid zone of India in which monsoon is a principal element of water resource. Due to erratic and scanty rainfall in this zone, agriculture is totally dependent on the monsoon. The objective of the present study is to assess the meteorological drought characteristics using Drought Indices Calculator DrinC from the historical rainfall records of the Barmer District of Rajasthan State by employing the criterion of percentage departure (D%), rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). Trend analysis of seasonal and extreme annual monthly rainfall was carried out for the Barmer District of Rajasthan State using the data period between 1901 and 2002 at the 5% level of significance. Sen's slope estimator was also applied to identify the trend. Temporal analysis is useful to predict and identify the possible drought severity and its duration in the study region. It also helps in understanding its effect on groundwater recharge and increasing the risk of water shortage. Trend analysis of rainfall over 102 years shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, southwest monsoon and annual rainfall and a decreasing trend in winter rainfall. Through this study, policy makers and local administrators will be benefitted, which will help them in taking proactive drought relief decisions in the drought-hit regions.