State survival vs leaders’ survival: how ethnic conflicts affect a state’s international alignment behavior?

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article examines the underlying factors contributing to a more strategic and rational alignment behaviour exhibited by certain post-Soviet states compared to others in the region and beyond, despite the high stakes of domestic politics. Specifically, it focuses on Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova, suggesting their consistent, state-centric foreign policies arise from facing protracted ethnic conflicts threatening their territorial integrity. The notion of differential survival risks is proposed to explain this phenomenon. Consequently, resolving these conflicts becomes the paramount concern for these states’ leadership to avoid substantial territorial losses or even loss of sovereignty, relegating domestic issues to a secondary status.