Abstract
The article is devoted to the topical issues of finding ways to get the tourism industry out of the crisis at the world and national levels. In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, due to the closure of borders and a decrease in the level of income of the population, the tourism industry has suffered the greatest losses, as evidenced by the indicators of reducing the tourist flow and, accordingly, income from conducting tourist activities. Since the industry is of great socio-economic importance through providing the population with jobs and making a significant contribution to national and local budgets, as well as influencing the development of related sectors of the economy, the problem of tourism development becomes of state importance, especially in the countries with a high share of income from the tourism industry in the GDP structure. According to preliminary estimates of experts, the level of global GDP due to the crisis in tourism may decrease by 2.8 %. The article analyzed statistical data on the development of the tourism industry in 2019, as well as based on the results of analyzing the assessments of experts of international organizations dealing with the tourism and economic development, three scenarios were constructed for changing the main financial indicators of the tourism industry for the period from 2020 to 2021: realistic, optimistic and pessimistic.
Highlights
Due to the introduction of quarantine measures during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the tourism industry experienced significant difficulties
It all depends on the indicators of October-December, when a seasonal flu outbreak will add to the coronavirus pandemic, which may lead to the resumption of strict quarantine restrictions and a new transition to total quarantine with border closures
The results indicate high losses from the lockdown of the tourism industry in the context of the pandemic and the need to find ways to minimize these losses in order to prevent the bankruptcy of tourist enterprises, as well as minimize negative socio-economic consequences
Summary
Due to the introduction of quarantine measures during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the tourism industry experienced significant difficulties. The losses of the tourism industry will amount to more than 1 trillion US dollars, which is noted in the report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [1]. Such a crisis has no analogues in the history of the development of the tourism industry. The projection of a pessimistic scenario for the development of quarantine restrictions allows us to calculate that by the end of the year, the losses of the tourism industry will increase to 1.2 trillion US dollars, and the volume of decline in financial and economic indicators of the tourism industry will amount to 80%. In addition to the economic consequences for the tourism industry itself, such a reduction in indicators will lead to serious socio-economic
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