State Exit Exams and Graduation Rates: A Hierarchical SLX Modelling Approach

Joshua C Hall,Shree B Pokharel,Donald J Lacombe

doi:10.52324/001c.12636

Abstract

The literature on high school exit exams has found both positive and negative effects of these high stake exams on high school graduation rates. To this point, the literature has not taken into account the embedded nature of school districts within state education systems. We employ a Bayesian Hierarchical SLX model to account for the hierarchical nature of education data in the United States. Our approach also allows us to account for spatial spillovers that influence graduation rates across districts and states. Using school district and state-level data for 45 states and 8194 school districts in the U.S. in 2015, we generally find no statistically significant effect of state exit exams on high school graduation rates. Random effect coefficients, however, point towards high school exit exams being negatively associated with graduation rates in a handful of states.

Highlights

The widespread consensus that high school diplomas displayed low academic skills and standards in the latter half of the twentieth century led to policies favoring high–stakes school exit exams in the U.S The deficiency of job skills and college preparedness in high school graduates were mostly attributed to social promotion (Reardon and Galindo, 2002) and to ‘watered–down’ curriculum (Bond and King, 1995)
While we find that non– spatial papers miss important spatial spillovers across school districts, we generally find no statistically significant evidence that states with exit exams have higher or lower graduation rates than states without such exams
Given the longstanding history of high stakes state exit exams on high school graduation rates in the U.S, it comes as no surprise that various empirical studies have found mixed results

Summary

Introduction

The widespread consensus that high school diplomas displayed low academic skills and standards in the latter half of the twentieth century led to policies favoring high–stakes school exit exams in the U.S The deficiency of job skills and college preparedness in high school graduates were mostly attributed to social promotion (Reardon and Galindo, 2002) and to ‘watered–down’ curriculum (Bond and King, 1995). This view was supported when evidence of students’ lack of proficiency in primary subjects were compared to those of other countries (c) Southern Regional Science Association 2020 ISSN 1553-0892, 0048-49X (online) www.srsa.org/rrs. It might bring public scrutiny and less financial rewards

Methods

Results

Conclusion