State capacity and the unplanned decline of Venezuela’s petro-state: reflections for sustainable transitions and the Green New Deal

Abstract

Venezuela has historically been one of the world’s largest oil producers and has the largest crude reserves. However, the country has experienced a dramatic political and economic crisis over the past decade that has decimated its oil industry. Venezuela’s production shrunk sharply in the past six years, oil exports have declined and the country is now a marginal producer in global markets. This crisis has taken place amid a process of autocratic political consolidation and the establishment of a predatory political economy. This article focuses on this crisis and interrogates to what extent it can pave the way to a sustainable move away from oil dependence in dialogue with recent debates on sustainable transition processes. Building on the intersections of Global Political Economy and environmental politics, we highlight the importance of interconnecting links across state, society and international actors in viable sustainability transitions, such as proposals for Green New Deal(s) in different national contexts. Our analysis of the Venezuelan case subsequently highlights the absence of these capacities. We argue that contemporary Venezuela underscores the risks and costs of post-oil energy transitions in rentier states. Contemporary Venezuela is thus a cautionary tale for resource-dependent economies that may also undergo post-oil transitions in the future due to shifting global conditions but likewise lack the necessary state capacity to respond and adapt.