State Behavior in International Crisis

Abstract

This article presents a stress-coping-choice model of state behavior in international crisis. Competing definitions of crisis are first examined, with special reference to the differences between the Hermann and ICB definitions. Thereafter the model is specified-notably the independent variable, stress induced by perceptions of value threat, time pressure, and the probability of war-and the dependent variable, choice. The central research question is the effects of changing crisis-induced stress on coping and on choice. A multifaceted methodology is delineated. I he model is then applied to the behavior of one state in two international crises, Israel in 1967 and 1973. A set of 23 hypotheses drawn from empirical studies of the 1914, Korean War, and Cuban Missile crises is assessed with the findings from these Middle East cases. More than two-thirds are supported, suggesting the possible existence of common attributes in international crisis behavior, relating to information processing, consultation patterns, decisional forums, and the consideration of alternatives. Finally, new propositions about coping by decision makers of states under conditions of escalating and deescalating stress are generated from the findings indicated in this inquiry.