Starzenie się ludności na obszarach przemysłowych w Polsce

Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyse the process of population ageing in selected industrial centres in Poland. Ten industrial towns were taken into account: both old coal-mining areas (Chorzów, Wałbrzych) and industrial areas developed intensively in 1970s and 1980s. In all of them, industrial investments were connected with a high wave of immigration of young people. Nowadays the immigrant population is ageing at a rapid pace, which may have negative consequences for the development of information society. In the years 1988–2007, most of the units recorded a decrease in pre-working population (aged under 18) and an increase in post-working population (aged 60 and over for women and 65 and over for men). According to the demographic transition theory, the proportion of working population (aged 18–59/64) recorded a considerable increase (demographic window of opportunity or demographic bonus), however the changes in the structure of working population were unfavourable with an increase of immobile working population (aged 45–59/64) and a decrease of mobile working population (aged 18–44). According to the author’s own projection up to the year 2030, the negative trends will be confirmed with a considerable drop of the percentage of working population in industrial units, followed by a steady increase in the dependency ratio.