Standard of reference in operational day-ahead deterministic solar forecasting

Abstract

Skill scores can be used to compare deterministic (also known as single-valued or point) forecasts made using different models at different locations and time periods. To compute the skill score, a reference forecasting method is needed. Nonetheless, there is no consensus on the choice of reference method. In this paper, three classes of commonly used references methods, namely, climatology, persistence, and their linear combination, are studied in a day-ahead solar forecasting scenario. Day-ahead global solar irradiance forecasts with an hourly resolution are generated using research-grade data from 32 sites around the globe, over a period of 1 year, in an operational manner. To avoid exaggerating the skill scores, it is generally agreed that the most accurate naïve forecasting method should be chosen as the standard of reference. In this regard, the optimal convex combination of climatology and persistence is highly recommended to be used as the standard of reference for day-ahead solar forecasting.