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Abstract
In this paper, we present a new mathematical model that describes agree-disagree opinions during polls. We first present the model and its different compartments. Then, we use the next-generation matrix method to compute thresholds of equilibrium stability. We perform the stability analysis of equilibria to determine under which conditions these equilibrium points are stable or unstable. We show that the existence and stability of these equilibria are controlled by the calculated thresholds. Finally, we also perform several computational and statistical experiments to validate the theoretical results obtained in this work. To study the influence of various parameters on these thresholds and to identify the most influential parameters, a global sensitivity analysis is carried out based on the partial rank correlation coefficient method and the Latin hypercube sampling.
Highlights
Participation in political life requires citizens’ attention, time, knowledge, money, and motivation
RA0 is the average number of new agreements produced by an individual in agreement and that was introduced into a population of ignorant people during the period in which he or she was in that opinion
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) approach helps to identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and provides essential information about the model performance
Summary
Participation in political life requires citizens’ attention, time, knowledge, money, and motivation. Public opinion polls are widely used to identify people’s political positions, vote, and other behaviors by asking questions about their opinions, activities, and personal characteristics. We know that knowing the positions of the electorate can affect voter behavior [3, 4] It is unclear how voting shapes party leaders’ strategies during the election campaign. (1) e targeted population is well mixed, that is, the ignorant individuals are homogeneously spread throughout the population (2) Recruitment and mortality are negligible under the temporal scale consideration; no individual is recruited and no individual dies during the poll (3) Individuals have the right to communicate with each other and can convince one another (4) People who are unsure of their opinion are ignorant (5) People who abstain from voting are ignorant Everyone has their reasons for agreement or disagreement.
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