Abstract
In this study a method for making long‐range forecasts of freezeup dates in rivers is developed. The method requires the initial water temperature at an upstream station, the long‐range air temperature forecast, the predicted mean flow velocity in the river reach, and water temperature response parameters. The water temperature response parameters can be either estimated from the surface heat exchange coefficient and the average flow depth or determined empirically from recorded air and water temperature data. The method is applied to the St. Lawrence River between Kingston, Ontario, and Massena, New York, and is shown to be capable of forecasting the freeze‐up data.
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