Spring Precipitation Deficiency in Poland and Its Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Context of Agricultural Needs

Robert Kalbarczyk,Eliza Kalbarczyk

doi:10.3390/agronomy12010158

Abstract

Deficient precipitation (dPr) in the growing season, especially in critical periods, affects plant condition and determines the quality and quantity of obtained yields. Knowledge about the variability and distribution of dPr is essential to mitigate its effect on agricultural soils and on crop and livestock production. The goal of the work is to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of spring precipitation deficiency and also to indicate the zones of risk and variability of its occurrence in Poland. It was assumed that dPr occurred when total monthly precipitation in a given year accounted for ≤75% of the total multi-year mean (1951–2018). In the spring season, the multi-year mean of the area covered by deficient precipitation (ACDP) amounted to 33% and fluctuated between approximately 31% in May and approximately 35% in March. The study distinguished four zones in Poland that vary in terms of the risk and variability of spring precipitation deficiency. The obtained results may be used, for example, to assess the needs for irrigation in the changing climate conditions, to model the growing season and yields of cultivated plants, and to select adaptation measures for agriculture in response to climate change.

Highlights

A lack of precipitation can give rise to meteorological drought, when it is long-lasting and is accompanied by higher-than-average air temperatures and enhanced evaporation [1,2]
The results of the research presented in the Fourth IPCC Report [19], which was conducted on the basis of the SRES A1B scenario, indicate that central Europe will see an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation by the end of the 21st century
This study shows that deficient precipitation most frequently occurs in central-west and north Poland

Summary

Introduction

A lack of precipitation can give rise to meteorological drought, when it is long-lasting and is accompanied by higher-than-average air temperatures and enhanced evaporation [1,2]. The results of the research presented in the Fourth IPCC Report [19], which was conducted on the basis of the SRES A1B scenario, indicate that central Europe will see an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Similar results to those from the Fourth IPCC Report [19] were achieved by [20] for south-west Poland and east Saxony in Germany with the use of the WETTREG method, which is based on the A1B, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for two time horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The latest, Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC forecasts that continued global warming will increase global water circulation and variability even more, and wet and dry events will become more intense [22]

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