Abstract
The objective of this research was to analyze the temporal patterns of monthly and annual precipitation at 36 weather stations of Aguascalientes, Mexico. The precipitation trend was determined by the Mann–Kendall method and the rate of change with the Theil–Sen estimator. In total, 468 time series were analyzed, 432 out of them were monthly, and 36 were annual. Out of the total monthly precipitation time series, 42 series showed a statistically significant trend (p ≤ 0.05), from which 8/34 showed a statistically significant negative/positive trend. The statistically significant negative trends of monthly precipitation occurred in January, April, October, and December. These trends denoted more significant irrigation water use, higher water extractions from the aquifers in autumn–winter, more significant drought occurrence, low forest productivity, higher wildfire risk, and greater frost risk. The statistically significant positive trends occurred in May, June, July, August, and September; to a certain extent, these would contribute to the hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystem but also could provoke problems due to water excess. In some months, the annual precipitation variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were statistically correlated, so it could be established that in Aguascalientes, this phenomenon is one of the causes of the yearly precipitation variation. Out of the total annual precipitation time series, only nine series were statistically significant positive; eight out of them originated by the augments of monthly precipitation. Thirteen weather stations showed statistically significant trends in the total precipitation of the growing season (May, June, July, August, and September); these stations are located in regions of irrigated agriculture. The precipitation decrease in dry months can be mitigated using shorter cycle varieties with lower water consumption, irrigation methods with high efficiency, and repairing irrigation infrastructure. The precipitation increase in humid months can be used to store water and use it during the dry season, and its adverse effects can be palliated with the use of varieties resistant to root diseases and lodging. The results of this work will be beneficial in the management of agriculture, hydrology, and water resources of Aguascalientes and in neighboring arid regions affected by climate change.
Highlights
One of the main climatological challenges is to verify the presence of climate change and to quantify its magnitude
It is believed that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the leading cause of the warming that occurred in the second half of the 20th century [1], which has led to a climate change characterized by altering meteorological variable patterns [2]
The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal trends of the monthly and annual precipitation observed at 36 weather stations that cover the study area representatively; the period we chose was 1980–2017
Summary
One of the main climatological challenges is to verify the presence of climate change and to quantify its magnitude. It is believed that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the leading cause of the warming that occurred in the second half of the 20th century [1], which has led to a climate change characterized by altering meteorological variable patterns [2]. Change (IPCC) states that the global annual mean temperature increased around 0.65–1.06 ◦ C during. For water droplets to get precipitated, the atmosphere must contain enough moisture, which can come from soil evaporation and oceans; with the help of wind, this moves by advection until the extent of saturating the air [5]. Precipitation studies are invaluable, since they can help predict problems that threaten the natural resources and economic activities of a region
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