Abstract
Climate change has changed numerous species phenologies. Understanding the asynchronous responses between pest insects and host plants to climate change is helpful in improving integrated pest management. It is necessary to use long‐term data to analyze the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis. Data for cotton bollworm, wheat yield, and wheat anthesis collected since 1990 were analyzed using linear regression and partial least‐squares regression, as well as the Mann–Kendall test. The results showed that warmer temperatures in the spring advanced the phenologies of cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, but the phenology changes in overwintering cotton bollworm were faster than those in wheat anthesis, and the eclosion period of overwintering was prolonged, resulting in an increase in overwintering adult abundance. This might lead to more first‐generation larvae and subsequent wheat damage. An early or late first‐appearance date significantly affected the eclosion days. The abrupt changes of phenologies in cotton bollworm, wheat anthesis, and climate were asynchronous, but the abrupt phenology changes occurred after or around the climate abrupt change, especially after or around the abrupt changes of temperature in March and April. The expansion of asynchronous responses in the change rate of wheat anthesis and overwintering cotton bollworm would likely decrease wheat yield due to climate warming in the future. Accumulated temperature was the major affecting factor on the first eclosion date (t 1), adult abundance, and eclosion days. Temperatures in March and April and precipitation in the winter mainly affected the prepeak date (t 2), peak date (t 3), and postpeak date (t 4), respectively, and these factors indirectly affected wheat yield. Thus, the change in the spring phenology of the cotton bollworm and wheat anthesis, and hence wheat yield, was affected by climate warming.
Highlights
It is challenging for scientists to demonstrate how climate impacts natural ecosystems (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Root et al, 2003; Stenseth et al, 2002)
The results showed that the date of t1 (Figure 5b), date of t2 (Figure 5c), date of t3 (Figure 5d), date of t4 (Figure 5e), date of t5 (Figure 5f), anthesis (Figure 5g), Tmean in March (Figure 5h), abundance (Figure 5j), and eclosion period (Figure 5k) all appeared significant abrupt changes in 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 1998, 1991, 1999, 1999, and 1997, respectively (Figure 5b–h)
accumulated temperature (AT) had the greatest impact on t1; AT had only the second greatest impact on t2–t5, and the proportion of explained variance varied from 21.0% to 37.0%, which was far lower than the proportion of 70% on t1
Summary
It is challenging for scientists to demonstrate how climate impacts natural ecosystems (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Root et al, 2003; Stenseth et al, 2002). Different trophic levels have different temperature sensitivities (Berggren, Björkman, Bylund, & Ayres, 2009; Voigt et al, 2003), and insects usually show more robust responses to climate change than do plants (Gordo & Sanz, 2005; Parmesan, 2007). This is likely because insect metabolism is more sensitive to increases in temperature than plant metabolism (Bale et al, 2002; Berggren et al, 2009). An improved understanding of how climate impacts ecological processes and the involved mechanisms would result in better predictions of the effects of future climate change
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