Spatial Variability in Years of Abrupt Seasonal Temperature Changes and Warming (Cooling) Hiatuses in China from 1951–2018 and the Variation Trends before and after These Years

Xing Huang,Zixu Qiao,Bolin Sun,Yang Chen,Tingxi Liu,Long Ma,Ying Zhou

doi:10.3390/atmos11010082

Abstract

Abrupt temperature changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses have an impact on the ecological environment. Currently, research findings for the spatial variability in the years of abrupt temperature changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses covering a variety of climate zones, as well as the variation trends before and after these years, are lacking. In the present study, based on the seasonal (monthly) average minimum temperatures, average temperatures, and average maximum temperature data from 622 Chinese meteorological stations during 1951–2018, the spatial variability in the years of abrupt seasonal changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses for these three temperature types in China, as well as the variation trends before and after these years, were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results are as follows. For most stations in China, the abrupt changes in the three temperature types during each season began to occur over a wide range in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and abrupt changes did not occur at a few stations concentrated south of 30° N. After an abrupt change occurred, the average minimum temperatures and average temperatures both showed significant upward trends, while the average maximum temperatures showed significant downward trends in some regions of southern China. After five to 15 years of temperature increases (decreases) following the abrupt changes, warming (cooling) hiatuses occurred in some areas of China, with the hiatus years occurring between 1989 and 2013. These hiatuses mainly occurred in 1998 and 2007, and in terms of proximity, the stations without warming (cooling) hiatuses were concentrated south of 40° N. After nine to 17 years of warming (cooling) hiatuses, the hiatuses ended at some stations between 2013 and 2017, after which the temperatures again increased rapidly. The periods of warming (cooling) hiatuses were longer in northern China than in southern China. Currently, there are some stations where the hiatuses have not ended, suggesting that the hiatus period is apparently longer than 17 years. The years of abrupt change, no abrupt change, hiatus, no hiatus, end of hiatus, and no end of hiatus, as well as their variation trends before and after these years, have shown strong spatial variability. The results of this study have enriched the research findings on climate change.

Highlights

Climate change can trigger global and regional extreme climate events, such as water cycle disturbances, sea-level rise, and droughts, which destroy the natural ecological environment and threaten human survival [1,2,3,4]
The findings of the spatial variability in the years of abrupt temperature change and warming hiatuses, as well as the trends before and after these years in large regions that cover a variety of climate zones are lacking
Most of the stations significant abrupt changes were concentrated in southern China, while clear abrupt change trends were showing no significant abrupt changes were concentrated in southern China, while clear abrupt observed in northern China, which may be attributed to the impact of the East Asian monsoon and change trends were observed in northern China, which may be attributed to the impact of the East even global atmospheric circulation [19]

Summary

Introduction

Climate change can trigger global and regional extreme climate events, such as water cycle disturbances, sea-level rise, and droughts, which destroy the natural ecological environment and threaten human survival [1,2,3,4] These extreme climate events are closely related to abrupt temperature. The findings of the spatial variability in the years of abrupt temperature change and warming hiatuses, as well as the trends before and after these years in large regions that cover a variety of climate zones are lacking. This is conducive to the understanding of regional climate change and the limitation of coping with climate disasters under different temperature variation characteristics in the region. Aiming at the factors such as the annual (seasonal) average temperatures [12] and extreme temperatures [13] and diurnal temperature [14], studies have been carried out using methods such as the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test [11], filtering detection [15], and the filtering sliding t-test [16]. and studies have demonstrated that global average temperatures in the 20th century have exhibited warm-cold-warm variations and experienced an abrupt increase in the

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Results

Conclusion