Abstract
East Africa is a hotspot for foodborne diseases, including infection by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS), a zoonotic pathogen that may originate from livestock. Urbanization and increased demand for animal protein drive intensification of livestock production and food processing, creating risks and opportunities for food safety. We built a probabilistic mathematical model, informed by prior beliefs and dedicated stakeholder interviews and microbiological research, to describe sources and prevalence of NTS along the beef supply chain in Moshi, Tanzania. The supply chain was conceptualized using a bow tie model, with terminal livestock markets as pinch point, and a forked pathway postmarket to compare traditional and emerging supply chains. NTS was detected in 36 (7.7%) of 467 samples throughout the supply chain. After combining prior belief and observational data, marginal estimates of true NTS prevalence were 4% in feces of cattle entering the beef supply and 20% in raw meat at butcheries. Based on our model and sensitivity analyses, true NTS prevalence was not significantly different between supply chains. Environmental contamination, associated with butchers and vendors, was estimated to be the most likely source of NTS in meat for human consumption. The model provides a framework for assessing the origin and propagation of NTS along meat supply chains. It can be used to inform decision making when economic factors cause changes in beef production and consumption, such as where to target interventions to reduce risks to consumers. Through sensitivity and value of information analyses, the model also helps to prioritize investment in additional research.
Highlights
Agricultural intensification and environmental change are linked to the emergence of zoonotic and foodborne disease (Jones et al, 2013)
In this article we report an interdisciplinary effort to examine a specific foodborne pathogen in a clearly identified emerging livestock system: Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) associated with the beef supply chain for Moshi Municipal Council in northern Tanzania, which has a resource-constrained but rapidly expanding economy
The dispersed nature of true origins and the large number of consumers, which is similar to the structure of the red meat supply chain in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania (Wilson, 2015), meant that a classic bow tie model (Wein & Liu, 2005) could be used to describe the structure of the beef supply chain, with the pinch point located at the terminal markets
Summary
Agricultural intensification and environmental change are linked to the emergence of zoonotic and foodborne disease (Jones et al, 2013). Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is zoonotic (transmissible between humans and animals) as well as foodborne (obtained from food, with potential origins in humans, animals, crops, water, or the environment), and has emerged as a major pathogen in Africa (Crump et al, 2020). Since 2001, Tanzania’s annual gross domestic product growth has been 6–7%, which has been accompanied by steady population growth (World Bank Group, 2019). This has triggered rapid changes in agricultural production, food supplies, and consumption. Such changes seem to be driven and shaped primarily by small scale economic dynamics, the Tanzanian
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