SPLIT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: A CARDINAL CHANGE IN MODERNIZATION PROCESS OF POST-SOVIET AREA?

Abstract

Russia was the first country to start power race with Europeans in 18th century.Three hundred years later, one must admit that the modernization process there is not over, remains quite chaotic and has led to mixed results. Would there be specific roadblocks in the modernization process of the empire and its successors?Actually, the driving forces of this process in Russia have been very different from what they have been in Europe: a very specific geographical context has enabled the existence of an isolated pole of power, which took the initiative of modernization on a fundamentally reactive mode, in order to answer to the challenge posed by its European neighbors. Meanwhile, civil society had no incentive for change; its passivity was seen by rulers as an obstacle to overcome. The result of this somewhat laborious process is irreversible but incomplete modernization; instrumental goals have been reached, but serious problems remain in social, political and economic spheres, so that its completion remains a key political issue in post-Soviet States, as well as the question of the legacy of «reform led from the top».In spite of visible revival of some Soviet patterns in public life, several phenomena actually hinder the rebirth of full-scale conservative authoritarian regime. Emergence of civil society and oligarchs in Russia and Ukraine will not allow the State to monopolize public stage; totalitarian climax can probably happen only once; and organization of post-soviet space between revolutionary Ukraine and conservative Russia creates an unprecedented competitive situation. Rearrangement of relations between the State and its challengers in this context will most likely be fully original.