Speculation and e-commerce: The long and the short of IT

Abstract

Over the past 25 years, the development of electronic commerce (e-commerce) has challenged and threatened firms to adapt their business models and processes. Successful adaptation can lead to improved efficiencies, growth in market share, expansion into new markets, or simply survival in competitive markets. Short-window event studies provide evidence that the market places significant value on investments in e-commerce. However, if the market misunderstands how these projects add value, value measurement based on short-run returns could be misleading. We address this possibility by examining the market reaction to e-commerce investment announcements by a sample of mining companies. We argue that this group of companies represents a sample for which, a priori, there is no expected value added to the firm from the type of investment they announce. We find strong evidence that the market reacts positively to these announcements in the days surrounding the information release. However, we find that in the three-year period subsequent to the announcement the firms realize long-run negative abnormal returns. Significant share-price rises leading up to and immediately subsequent to the announcement dates were completely reversed over the subsequent three years. We interpret this result as being consistent with the market not always understanding when e-commerce adds value. While our result is only applicable to equity investments in small, speculative ventures, it suggests some caution in the use of short-run market value changes as a measure of the value added to firms by an e-commerce investment.