Species distribution modelling in predicting response to climate change.

Abstract

Abstract Species distribution modelling comprises a range of widely used tools for predicting potential changes in insect pest species distributions with climate change. We review the current literature to see the effectiveness of different approaches, particularly in comparing predictions based on current distribution data (correlative or 'environmental niche models') and those based on life-history traits and determination of thermal limits (mechanistic models). We review new developments in implementing processes such as dispersal and biotic interactions within species distribution models and how these could be used to develop management strategies incorporating natural enemies into climate change predictions. We propose that species distribution models should be linked with key trait data where possible to inform better of response to climate change.