Abstract
AbstractIn this chapter, the spatial-temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan in 1970–2017 was investigated. The results showed that the average annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan over the past 48 years was 464 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 year−1. No significant time trend was found in annual rainfall erosivity. Some of the results presented here are relevant to the further study of potential soil erosion in Kazakhstan. The East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, Almaty regions were under a more significant threat of rainfall erosivity than other regions. It is important to understand past and future differences in rainfall erosivity and its consequences in arid and semi-arid regions, where the amount of daily precipitation is always limited. GCM scenarios (GISSE2H, HadGEM2-ES, and NorESM1M) were statistically downscaled using the delta method for three periods. This study estimated the long-term variations in annual rainfall erosivity in Kazakhstan using past and future climate data. Based on the baseline climate, the average change in percent rainfall erosivity is 26.9%, 26.4%, and 35.2% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. The aggregate average annual precipitation and erosion activity for all climate models for all scenarios shows steady growth compared with the baseline climate.KeywordsKazakhstanRainfall erosivityErosivity densitySpatiotemporal changeClimate changeGCMsRCPsTrendsBaselineFuture scenarios
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