Abstract
The rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature phenomena across the globe has led to the recurrent incidence of global climate hazards, which have had severe effects on socioeconomic development. The daily maximum and minimum temperature datasets of 27 sites in Bangladesh were used to detect spatiotemporal trends of temperature extremes over Bangladesh during 1980–2017 based on ten temperature extreme indices using multi-statistical modeling namely linear regression, Pearson correlation coefficient, and factor analyses. Besides, mutation analyses based on the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Pettit test were employed to show the changing trend in extreme temperature. Results show that except for warmest days, the warm indices showed an increasing trend, mainly since the 2000s, while the growth rate was faster, and the response to global climate warming was sensitive. The cold indices were demonstrated a reverse trend since the 2010s. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and summer days (SU) increased faster, implying that the rising speed of daily max temperature was higher than of daily min-temperature in Bangladesh. The de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA) revealed a continuous increase in temperature extreme in the future except for cold days. The probability distribution functions (PDF) analysis revealed an evident variation of the curves in recent decades compared to the past three decades. Besides the warm night, DTR and SU primarily control the general warming trend of temperature extremes over Bangladesh during the study period. The mutation of the warm indices occurred before the cold index, indicating that the warm indices were more sensitive to global climate warming. The temperature extremes recognized in our research suggest that elevated warm temperature extremes due to global climate warming may have huge implications on the sustainable development of Bangladesh in the forthcoming period.
Highlights
Temperature extremes have critical effects on ecosystem imbalance, agricultural productivity, water resources and sustainable socioeconomic development (Easterling et al 2000; Ciais et al 2005; Schmidli and Frei 2005; Benestad and Haugen 2007; Allen et al 2010; Rammig and Mahecha, 2015; Guo et al 2019)
This paper aims to detect temporal and spatial trends of extreme temperatures in Bangladesh in the past years (1980–2017) using multi-statistical modeling approaches
The results show that warm temperature indices in Bangladesh were increasing in the last four decades except for the warmest days (TXX), especially before the 2000s, while cold temperature indices showed a decreasing trend after
Summary
Temperature extremes have critical effects on ecosystem imbalance, agricultural productivity, water resources and sustainable socioeconomic development (Easterling et al 2000; Ciais et al 2005; Schmidli and Frei 2005; Benestad and Haugen 2007; Allen et al 2010; Rammig and Mahecha, 2015; Guo et al 2019). Several studies have reported that the frequency of warm temperature indices is increasing, while the frequency of cold temperature indices is decreasing (Alexander et al 2006; Tank et al 2006; Piccarreta et al 2015; Sheikh et al 2015; Guan et al 2015; Sun et al 2016; You et al 2017; Ullah et al 2019) All these studies looked at average temperature trends and temperature extremes, but the latter only looked at monthly and yearly maximum and minimum values as extremes. A deep understanding of temperature extremes' trends and fluctuations is essential for developing accurate estimates of future climate change projections and answering scientific researchers', climate change analysts and decision-makers unique concerns
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
