Abstract
Extreme temperature change is one of the most urgent challenges facing our society. In recent years, extreme temperature has exerted a considerable influence on society and the global ecosystem. The Yangtze River Basin is not only an important growth belt of China’s social and economic development, but also the main commodity grain base in China. The purpose of this study is to study the extreme temperature indices in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and R/S analysis method are used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of major extreme temperature indices in the Yangtze River Basin from 1970 to 2014. The main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The occurrence of cold days (TX10), cold nights (TN10), ice days (ID), and frost days (FD) decrease at a rate of −0.66–−2.5 d/10a, respectively, while the occurrence of warm days (TX90), warm nights (TN90), summer days (SU), and tropical nights (TR) show statistically significant increasing trends at a rate of 2.2–4.73 d/10a. (2) The trends of the coldest day (TXn), coldest night (TNn), warmest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), and diurnal temperature range (DTR), range from −0.003 to 0.5 °C/10a. (3) Spatially, the main cold indices and warm indices increase and decrease the most in the upper and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. (4) DTR and TN90 show no abrupt changes; the main cold indices changed abruptly in the 1980s and the main warm indices changed abruptly in the late 1990s and early 2000s. (5) The extreme temperature indices are affected by the atmospheric circulation and urban heat island effect in the Yangtze River Basin. Relative indices and absolute indices will continue to maintain the present trend in the future. In short, the main cold indices of extreme temperature indices show a decreasing trend, the main warm indices of extreme temperature indices show an increasing trend, and cold indices and warm indices will continue to maintain the present trend in the future in the Yangtze River Basin. Extreme temperature has an important impact on agriculture, social, and economic development. Therefore, extreme temperature prediction and monitoring must be strengthened to reduce losses caused by extreme temperature disasters and to promote the sustainable development in Yangtze River Basin.
Highlights
According to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, from 1880 to 2012, the global mean surface temperature increased significantly, Int
The main cold indices of extreme temperature indices show a decreasing trend, the main warm indices of extreme temperature indices show an increasing trend, and cold indices and warm indices will continue to maintain the present trend in the future in the Yangtze River Basin
The empirical analysis provides the basis for the government to formulate corresponding policies, to reduce losses caused by extreme temperature disasters, and to promote sustainable development in the Yangtze River Basin
Summary
From 1880 to 2012, the global mean surface temperature increased significantly, Int. J. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 10936 with an increase of 0.85 ◦ C. The annual mean temperature from 2003 to 2012 increased by 0.78 ◦ C compared with that from 1850 to 1900 [1]. By the end of the century, global mean surface temperature may increase, and it is possible that the surface temperature will rise by a maximum of 2 ◦ C [2]. Global warming may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events [3]. Compared with the increase in mean temperature, regional extreme temperature changes have a more significant and direct impact on society and ecosystems
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