Abstract
Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.
Highlights
In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to change occurring in land use/cover because of urbanization and industrialization [1]
This study presents an overview of land use/cover changes that are expected to occur in the Tokyo metropolitan area in 2027 and 2037, relying on past spatiotemporal trends of urban growth detected across the decade 2007 to 2017 using GIS techniques and remotely sensed data
The inputs of the model consisted of the classified maps of 2007 and 2017 and the modeling variables that influence the distribution of land use/cover
Summary
Considerable attention has been paid to change occurring in land use/cover because of urbanization and industrialization [1]. Land use/cover change has widespread influence in many fields, in urban planning, and in transportation, environment, policy, and economics [2,3,4,5]. The trend of land use/cover change in industrialized nations is more crucial to establish a green and rich environment and to enhance comprehensive competitiveness in the world [7]. Japan is one of the developed countries and has undergone drastic land use/cover changes over the last decades, mainly since the economic boom of the 1970s, resulting in the formation of many metropolitan areas across its mainland. In recent years, maintaining a balance between the decreasing population and land use/cover change in Japan’s metropolitan areas is a crucial task [11]. Among the most influential policies is the zoning plan that was first proposed in 1968 [12]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
