Spatiotemporal Simulation and Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Density in Gannan Grassland Under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

To study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon density in grassland and explore the relationship between organic carbon density and influencing factors is of great significance to the management and maintenance of grassland ecosystems in Gannan Autonomous Prefecture, which is conducive to realizing the goal of "double carbon," promoting carbon sink, and mitigating climate change. Taking Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province as the research object, based on data from two CMIP6 future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), the CENTURY model was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial changes in soil organic carbon density in grassland of Gannan during 2023-2100. The main conclusions were as follows:① From 2023 to 2100, total organic carbon density, slow organic carbon density, and inert organic carbon density all showed a downward trend, whereas active organic carbon density fluctuated first and then increased. Meanwhile, the total organic carbon density, active organic carbon density, slow organic carbon density, and inert organic carbon density under the SSP585 scenario were higher than those under the SSP126 scenario. ② Mann-Kendall mutation analysis showed that the abrupt change in the difference of soil total organic carbon density (Δsomtc) occurred in 2030. The abrupt change in the difference of soil active carbon density (Δsom1c) occurred in 2027. ③ During the study period, the average soil organic carbon density of Gannan grassland was 7 505.69 g·m-2 under the SSP126 scenario and 7 551.87 g·m-2 under the SSP585 scenario. Gannan grassland soil organic carbon density was higher in the west and lower in the east, and the coefficient of variation was relatively stable. ④ The results of partial correlation analysis showed that precipitation was positively correlated with soil organic carbon density, whereas temperature was significantly negatively correlated with soil organic carbon density under future climate scenarios. ⑤ The results of the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test showed that under the two climate scenarios, the soil organic carbon density in Gannan showed an overall downward trend, in which Luqu County showed the fastest downward trend and Dibe County showed the slowest.