Spatio-temporal prediction of groundwater vulnerability based on CNN-LSTM model with self-attention mechanism: A case study in Hetao Plain, northern China

Abstract

Located in northern China, the Hetao Plain is an important agro-economic zone and population centre. The deterioration of local groundwater quality has had a serious impact on human health and economic development. Nowadays, the groundwater vulnerability assessment (GVA) has become an essential task to identify the current status and development trend of groundwater quality. In this study, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models are integrated to realize the spatio-temporal prediction of regional groundwater vulnerability by introducing the Self-attention mechanism. The study firstly builds the CNN-LSTM model with self-attention (SA) mechanism and evaluates the prediction accuracy of the model for groundwater vulnerability compared to other common machine learning models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The results indicate that the CNN-LSTM model outperforms these models, demonstrating its significance in groundwater vulnerability assessment. It can be posited that the predictions indicate an increased risk of groundwater vulnerability in the study area over the coming years. This increase can be attributed to the synergistic impact of global climate anomalies and intensified local human activities. Moreover, the overall groundwater vulnerability risk in the entire region has increased, evident from both the notably high value and standard deviation. This suggests that the spatial variability of groundwater vulnerability in the area is expected to expand in the future due to the sustained progression of climate change and human activities. The model can be optimized for diverse applications across regional environmental assessment, pollution prediction, and risk statistics. This study holds particular significance for ecological protection and groundwater resource management.