Spatiotemporal Patterns of Multiscale Drought and Its Impact on Winter Wheat Yield over North China Plain

Abstract

Drought has a significant impact on agricultural production, but the evolution of drought in the North China Plain (NCP) and its impact on winter wheat yield remain unclear. In this paper, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and combined with the Standardized Yield Residual Series (SYRS) and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) to study the spatiotemporal distribution of drought at different time scales and its impact on winter wheat yield. We found that: (1) The southern NCP was dominated by mild drought at the 1-month scale. In the northern NCP, mild drought was observed at the short-time scale and moderate drought at the medium- and long-time scales; (2) the frequency of mild drought was high and the frequency of moderate drought was a step lower. Moreover, drought risks were increasing in the north-central, eastern, and northeastern NCP, while the southern, west-central, southeastern, and northwestern NCP were becoming wetter (at the 6- and 9-month scales); (3) the maximum correlation coefficients were concentrated in the seedling to the greening stages. (4) Drought affected winter wheat with a lag of approximately 3 months, and the VCI was the most sensitive to the short-term SPEI.