Spatiotemporal Patterns and Evolution of Storm Surge Threats along the Southeastern Coastline of China

Abstract

The variability of storm surge poses a significant threat to coastal areas. A new metric named Accumulated Storm surge Potential Impact (ASPI) is proposed based on a new intensity parameter that removes other components from storm surge-induced water level rise. This new metric quantifies storm surge threat by combining frequency and intensity. The results show that storm surge threat has increased since the late 1990s due to greater general storm surges. The extreme storm surge threat did not follow the increasing trend until the mid-2000s. Different regional distribution patterns are found along this coast. The storm surge threat exhibited a -++ zonal tripole pattern, the negative phase was along the north coastline of Hangzhou Gulf and the positive phase was from the center to southern coast area of Zhejiang province and along the eastern coast area of Leizhou Peninsula. Long-term storm surge threats change spatial distribution pattern in three periods. More precarious threats from the center to southern coast areas of Zhejiang province illustrated a poleward shift of storm surge threats consistent with the trend of long-term tropical cyclone landfall. Meanwhile, the strong threat along the eastern coast line of Leizhou Peninsula was sustained from 1960 to 1995, then became weaker from 1996 to 2015. The evolution pattern of storm surge threat along the southeastern coastline of China could be applied for coastal adaptation research under climate change scenarios.