On the Relationships between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Precipitation Variability in Southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula: Atmospheric Circulation Analysis

Abstract

Abstract The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on daily, monthly, and seasonal precipitation was investigated for southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula using November–April data for the period of 1979–2005. The positive MJO phase is considered to be the periods for which the enhanced convection center was placed over the south Indonesian–north Australian region. On the other hand, the convection center shifts over the western Indian Ocean tropics and most of the study area as the negative MJO phase prevails. Seasonal precipitation and the frequency of wet events were significantly increased during the negative phase. The ratios of the precipitation amount during the negative phase to the corresponding values during the positive phase were about 1.75–2.75 and 2.75–4.00 for the southwestern and southeastern parts of Iran, respectively. This ratio reached to about 3.00 for Riyadh, 4.20 and 5.50 for Masqat and Doha, 2.10 for Kuwait, and 1.20 for Bahrain. The results of the seasonal and monthly analysis were generally found to be consistent, although because of the smaller sample size the outcomes of the monthly investigations were less statistically significant. While the negative MJO phase does not have a consistent effect on March precipitation over some parts of southern Iran, it has consistently enhanced precipitation over the eastern and southern coasts of the peninsula in Oman, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. During the negative MJO phase, while enhanced low-level southerly winds transfer a substantial amount of moisture to the study area, upward motion increases in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Synchronized with the prevalence of these rain-bearing southerly winds, the existence of a strong horizontal wind speed gradient at the exit region of the North Africa–Arabian jet enhances precipitation. The jet exit, which was mostly located over Egypt in November, moved westward into the study area in Iran and Saudi Arabia during the rainy period of January–March. The direction of near-surface wind anomalies changed from mostly southeasterly in November to southwesterly in March and April, influencing precipitation pattern during various months of the rainy season. In contrast to the negative phase, an enhanced low-level dry northerly wind and suppressed horizontal wind speed gradient at the jet exits are the main characteristics of atmospheric circulation over the study area during the positive MJO phase. Furthermore, an increased downward air motion at the middle levels of the atmosphere and a significant shortage in precipitation are the other climatic components of the southwest Asian region during such a period.