Spatiotemporal Interaction Characteristics and Transition Mechanism of Carbon Intensity in China's Transportation Industry

Abstract

This research was conducted using many spatial analysis approaches to dissect the spatiotemporal interactive characteristics of carbon emission intensity within the transportation sector from 2002 to 2020. An in-depth exploration of their transition mechanisms was conducted by nesting the obtained timewarp types with the panel quantile model. Finally, the geodetector model aligned with different transition mechanisms was employed to investigate and analyze the interaction effects among various factors influencing carbon intensity in the transportation sector. The results indicated that:① The carbon emission intensity of the transportation sector in 30 provinces and regions of China showed an overall downward trend with fluctuations, and the spatial clustering level was relatively stable. ② The spatiotemporal interactive features of ESTDA revealed that the relationship between the northwest region and its adjacent spatial units was unstable, with significant variations and fluctuations. In contrast, economically developed areas such as coastal cities in the eastern part had established mature transportation networks, resulting in a relatively stable local spatial pattern, though a few areas still exhibited spatiotemporal competitiveness. ③ The spatiotemporal transition of carbon intensity in the transportation sector could be categorized into four driving or constraining modes(the population economy urbanization constraint model, population economy urbanization facility constraint model, technology consumption industry-driven model, and technology industry regulation-driven model). Most provinces were influenced by the low quantile constraint and high quantile drive modes, with only a few affected by the high quantile constraint and low quantile drive modes, the majority of which were located in the northwest or southwest regions. ④ Further, we introduced the geographical detector model based on the identified mechanism of carbon emission intensity transition in the transportation sector, emphasizing the coordinated development of multiple factors and strengthening inter-regional collaborative governance.