Spatiotemporal heterogeneity, convergence and its impact factors: Perspective of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission per capita considering carbon sink effect

Abstract

Clarifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity, convergence and its impact factors of carbon emissions is not only beneficial to the formulation of differential carbon reduction policies, but also to achieve regional coordinated development. As the second largest source of carbon emissions, agricultural carbon emissions have attracted extensive attention practically and academically. The current study used the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2017, combining with the carbon emission accounting formula, Theil index method and convergence model, to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity, convergence and its impact factors of carbon emission intensity (CEI) and carbon emission per capita (CEPC) of planting industry considering carbon sink effect. The results revealed that the total carbon emission shows a downward trend during the investigation, while evident differences exist in different regions and dimensions mainly caused by the inter-regional differences. The CEI Theil index demonstrated gradient decreasing pattern of “western (0.14) > central (0.09) > eastern (0.05) > northeast (0.03)” and the CEPC Theil index showed the distribution characteristics of “northeast (0.09) > central (0.08) > western (0.08) > eastern (0.05)”. Convergence existed in the whole country and in the four regions when taking CEI as the estimation index, while different divergence characteristics appeared (except central) when CEPC is applied. The impact effects of initial CEI/CEPC, rural GDP per capita, agricultural financial support level, agricultural mechanization degree, agricultural structure, rural population size and urbanization level have spatiotemporal heterogeneity.