Spatiotemporal Evolution of Marine Heatwaves Globally

Abstract

Abstract The spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is explored using a tracking algorithm called Ocetrac that provides objective characterization of MHW spatiotemporal evolution. Candidate MHW grid points are defined in detrended gridded sea temperature data using a seasonally varying temperature threshold. Identified MHW points are collected into spatially distinct objects using edge detection with weak sensitivity to edge detection and size percentile threshold criteria at each timestep. Ocetrac then uses 3D connectivity to determine if these objects are part of the same event, but Ocetrac only defines the full MHW event after all timesteps have been processed, limiting its use in predictability studies. Here Ocetrac is applied to monthly satellite sea surface temperature data from September 1981 through January 2021. The resulting MHWs are characterized by their intensity, duration, and total area covered. The global analysis shows that MHWs in the Gulf of Maine and Mediterranean Sea are spatially isolated, while major MHWs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected in space and time. The largest and most long lasting MHW using this method lasts for 60 months from November 2013 to October 2018, encompassing previously identified MHW events including those in the Northeast Pacific (2014-2015), the Tasman Sea (2015-2016, 2017-2018), and the Great Barrier Reef (2016).