Spatiotemporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiangxi province, China

Shu Yang,Chenying Yuan,Yuan Gao,Xiaobo Liu,Xiaoqing Liu,Shengen Chen,Yujuan Yue,Soeren Metelmann,Yangqing Liu,Qiyong Liu

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-70761-0

Abstract

Historically, Jiangxi province has had the largest HFRS burden in China. However, thus far, the comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of HFRS is limited in Jiangxi. In this study, seasonal decomposition analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space–time scan statistic analyses were performed to detect the spatiotemporal dynamics distribution of HFRS cases from 2005 to 2018 in Jiangxi at the county scale. The epidemic of HFRS showed the characteristic of bi-peak seasonality, the primary peak in winter (November to January) and the second peak in early summer (May to June), and the amplitude and the magnitude of HFRS outbreaks have been increasing. The results of global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the HFRS epidemic exhibited the characteristic of highly spatially heterogeneous, and Anyi, Fengxin, Yifeng, Shanggao, Jing’an and Gao’an county were hot spots areas. A most likely cluster, and two secondary likely clusters were detected in 14-years duration. The higher risk areas of the HFRS outbreak were mainly located in Jiangxi northern hilly state, spreading to Wuyi mountain hilly state as time advanced. This study provided valuable information for local public health authorities to design and implement effective measures for the control and prevention of HFRS.

Highlights

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses in the Bunyaviridae family[1]
The results of this study revealed that the amplitude and the magnitude of HFRS outbreaks in Jiangxi increased from 2005 to 2018
Consistent with several s tudies[9,11,24], the results of this study showed that the incidence of HFRS in Jiangxi had a major epidemic season and a minor seasonal peak each year, which is corresponded to the epidemic peak of Hantaan virus (HTNV)-type HFRS and Seoul virus (SEOV)-type HFRS, respectively[15]

Summary

Introduction

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses in the Bunyaviridae family[1]. China remains the most endemic country, and there were more than 11,000 HFRS cases reported annually from 2016 to 20185. Jiangxi province, which is located in the southern bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangzi River, is one of the most serious HFRS endemic areas of China. The epidemic of HFRS has expanded throughout the central and northern Jiangxi and reached Ningdu county, Ganzhou city, in the s outh[6]. The dynamics spatiotemporal distributions of HFRS in Jiangxi have not yet been explored systematically. This study aims to explore the dynamics of spatiotemporal distributions based on the case surveillance data from 2005 to 2018 at the county scale in Jiangxi, and providing valuable scientific support for HFRS monitoring and control

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion