Spatiotemporal Distribution and Risk Assessment of Heat Waves Based on Apparent Temperature in the One Belt and One Road Region

Cong Yin,Yexing Ye,Juanle Wang,Fei Yang

doi:10.3390/rs12071174

Abstract

Heat waves seriously affect the productivity and daily life of human beings. Therefore, they bring great risks and uncertainties for the further development of countries in the One Belt and One Road (OBOR) region. In this study, we used daily meteorological monitoring data to calculate the daily apparent temperature and annual heat wave dataset for 1989–2018 in the OBOR region. Then, we studied their spatiotemporal distribution patterns. Additionally, multi-source data were used to assess heat wave risk in the OBOR region. The main results are as follows: (1) The daily apparent temperature dataset and annual heat wave dataset for 1989–2018 in the OBOR region at 0.1° × 0.1° gridded resolution were calculated. China, South Asia and Southeast Asia are suffering the most serious heat waves in the OBOR region, with an average of more than six heat waves, lasting for more than 60 days and the extreme apparent temperature has reached over 40 °C. Additionally, the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves have been confirmed to increase continuously. (2) The heat wave risk in the OBOR region was assessed. Results show that the high heat wave risk areas are distributed in eastern China, northern South Asia and some cities. The main conclusion is that the heat wave risk in most areas along the OBOR route is relatively high. In the process of deepening the development of countries in the OBOR region, heat wave risk should be fully considered.

Highlights

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report, human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0 ◦C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8 ◦C to 1.2 ◦C
Results show that the high heat wave risk areas are distributed in eastern China, northern South Asia and some cities
By referring to other work and comparing the results of different thresholds (CRTT = 85 and 90), we found that Climatological Relative Temperature Threshold (CRTT) = 90 best reflects the actual state of heat waves [29,75]

Summary

Introduction

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report, human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0 ◦C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8 ◦C to 1.2 ◦C (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/). Global warming is projected to intensify heat wave events as quantified by multiple descriptors, including frequency, duration and intensity [1,2]. The OBOR region involves 3 continents, more than 66 countries and regions and approximately 4.4 billion people, with frequent natural disasters, highly concentrated populations, and fragile ecological environments [3,4]. Extreme heat wave events have occurred frequently in many parts of the OBOR region, causing serious casualties and property losses. In 2010, a heat wave lasted for three weeks in Russia and killed approximately 56,000 people c (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-heat-deaths-idUSTRE69O4LB20101025). From April to June 2015, India experienced a bout of intense heat waves that killed more than 2500 people across the country. A heat wave in southern Pakistan killed more than 800 people [6]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion