Spatiotemporal characteristics of China’s carbon emissions and driving forces: A Five-Year Plan perspective from 2001 to 2015

Abstract

China’s Five-Year Strategic Plan for National Economic and Social Development (FYP) sets up development goals, main tasks, and policy measures to regulate or facilitate the development of the relevant industries for the next five-year, and therefore play a critical role in achieving the national goal of carbon dioxide emission control. This study analyzes China’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the economic sectors and their driving forces among three full cycles of the 10th, 11th and 12th FYPs, by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Our results show that the total emissions began to drop in 2014 and 2015 after a continuous increase from 2001 to 2013, making emission growth during the 12th FYP less than half of the previous two periods. Energy efficiency has been the main player in limiting the emission growth associated with economic activities. The emission mitigation effect of energy structure change became noticeable during the 12th FYP while that from the economic structure change is still marginal, suggesting structure decarbonization as the focal point of future plan design and implementation. We found strong diversities in the emission scale and growth patterns among the 30 provinces (except Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao where no data are available), and a significant switch from high emission growth mode to low emission growth mode in a number of eastern and central provinces. The latter suggesting that the measures taken during the 11–12th FYPs to control emission growth have been effective. Results from this study sheds light on how future FYP may shape low-carbon strategies in China, which may also benefit other emerging economies, especially the “Road and Belt Plan” related regions.