Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Rainfall Thresholds of Geological Landslide Disasters in ASEAN Countries

Abstract

Drawing upon a comprehensive global database of landslides and utilizing high-resolution IMERG satellite precipitation data, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of landslide occurrences across the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study constructs a region-specific, graded warning system by formulating an average effective intensity–duration (I–D) rainfall threshold curve for each ASEAN member. Examination of 1747 landslide events spanning from 2006 to 2018 illustrates a significant association between the frequency of landslides in ASEAN regions and the latitudinal movement of local precipitation bands. Incidences of landslides hit their lowest in March and April, while a surge is observed from October to January, correlating with the highest mortality rates. Geographical hotspots for landslide activity, characterized by substantial annual rainfall and constrained landmasses, include the Philippine archipelago, Indonesia’s Java Island, and the Malay Peninsula, each experiencing an average of over 2.5 landslides annually. Fatalities accompany approximately 41.4% of ASEAN landslide events, with the Philippines and Indonesia registering the most substantial numbers. Myanmar stands out for the proportion of large-scale landslide incidents, with an average casualty rate of 10.89 deaths per landslide, significantly surpassing other countries in the region. The I–D rainfall threshold curves indicate that the Philippines experienced the highest precipitation levels before landslide initiation, whereas Myanmar has the threshold set at a considerably lower level.