Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factor analysis of embodied CO2 emissions in China's building sector

Abstract

Since the embodied emissions of the building sector play a pivotal role in the total emission profile of developing countries, represented by China, it is crucial to uncover its emission characteristics and the underlying drivers. Most existing studies focus on building operational emissions, and there is a lack of in-depth studies on embodied emissions, especially in spatiotemporal heterogeneity and spatial correlation. Thus, this study calculates embodied emissions of the building sector in China's 29 provinces during 2011–2020 and develops an innovative factor analysis model that integrates the extended STIRPAT model, network analysis, and spatial Durbin model to explore the influence mechanisms of various factors on emissions from local, spillover, overall and temporal perspectives. The empirical results reveal notable spatiotemporal differences and spatial dependence across regions. The area has consistently been the most crucial driver. The building performance demands are increasingly influencing emissions through direct and spillover effects. The slowdown decarbonization of the material industry diminishes its impact. Limited technical improvement and regional shifts of carbon-intensive enterprises have weakened the technological emission reduction effects. Therefore, regulating ineffective construction, discouraging excessive building performance, implementing demand-side material efficiency strategies, bolstering interregional coordination, and developing low-carbon technologies are keys to cutting emissions.